Prime Highlights
- China’s growth outlook for 2026 rises to 4.5%, driven by easing US trade tensions and strong domestic policies.
- Stimulus measures and reduced tariffs are set to sustain economic activity and support continued growth.
Key Facts
- China’s GDP hit a record CNY 140.2 trillion, with growth projected at 5.0% in 2025 and 4.0% in 2027.
- Global economy remains resilient, with world growth at 3.3% in 2025 and the US growth forecast raised to 2.4%.
Background
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised its economic growth forecast for China, citing easing trade tensions with the United States and continued policy support at home. In its latest World Economic Outlook, released yesterday, the IMF said China’s economy is now expected to grow faster than previously projected.
The Fund revised China’s 2026 growth forecast to 4.5 percent, up from 4.2 percent estimated in October. It also raised its 2025 growth estimate to 5.0 percent from 4.8 percent, in line with official data released by China’s National Bureau of Statistics. China’s gross domestic product reached a record CNY 140.2 trillion last year. For 2027, the IMF expects growth to ease to 4.0 percent due to longer-term structural challenges.
The IMF said the upward revision reflects lower effective US tariff rates on Chinese goods following a year-long trade truce agreed in November. Continued stimulus measures, which are expected to remain in place over the next two years, have also supported domestic demand and investment.
IMF Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said earlier policy measures have helped stabilise economic activity and will continue to support growth into 2026. He added that the impact of earlier trade shocks is expected to fade, providing further support to China’s economy.
The IMF expects the global economy to grow steadily. It projects world growth at 3.3% this year and 3.2% next year, showing resilience despite global uncertainty.
The IMF also raised its growth forecast for the United States to 2.4 percent this year, supported by fiscal policy and lower interest rates. It said the impact of higher trade barriers is gradually weakening, while technology-driven growth continues to offer support.
In comparison, the World Bank recently forecast global growth at 2.6 percent this year and projected China’s 2026 growth at 4.4 percent, broadly in line with the IMF’s outlook.
